A flattening curve has often been a signal of slower growth ahead. More worrisome has been an inverted curve, where short-term rates are higher than long-term, which has preceded every post-World War II recession. The curve’s predictive value, however, is not perfect, with occasional false positive signals for both flat and steep curves.
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In fact, we found that the S&P 500 has gained 12.3% on average when the yield curve was flattening compared with a 7.9% gain when the yield curve was steepening for all periods since 1980.
Peter Praet begins steepening the Eurozone yield curve with guidance. Capital Key re-weighting will be the key signal on how the ECB will play the Populist threat to the Eurozone. Mr Market may not.
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A flattening yield curve, on its own, has not been a risk to US equities. In the past 40 years, the S&P has typically risen by a median of 6.6% when the curve was flattening from the current level (next two charts from NDR). The one exception was in 1973: between November 1972 and October 1973, the Fed more than
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Ahead of the financial crisis in 2007, the yield curve was actually steepening, not flattening. In our assessment, the proper comparison between now and the prior cycle is actually 2005, not 2007. The point is that you often see the yield curve actually steepening within the year prior to a recession, having been inverted prior to the steepening.
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Credit union executives and consultants have decried as arbitrary NCUA’s 35% tipping point, but the prescription for potential balance sheet ills is not that. across the yield curve.” However, SAFE.
Treasury bond yields rose further on the payrolls report, with the benchmark 10-year note yield touching its highest level since 2011, and U.S. stocks slipped. The week’s events were not just..