It’s Fed versus market as traders bet balance sheet slows hiking

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No area of the stock market benefited more than financials following the Federal Reserve’s most recent comments. Now traders are betting the group’s climb. begin the long-awaited unwinding of its.

Starter home supply growth likely not a blip, but sign of a shift

Interest rate futures show traders are currently betting the Fed won’t raise rates at all next year. After weeks of market volatility and calls by President Donald Trump for the Federal Reserve to stop raising interest rates, the US central bank instead did it again, and stuck by a plan to keep withdrawing support from an economy it views as strong.

(For a graphic on ‘S&P 500 dividend yield vs. 2-year Treasury yield’ click The Fed ended its regime of rate suppression when it stopped expanding its balance sheet and then began raising interest rates in late 2015. Since then, bonds have slowly returned to delivering real returns relative to inflation.

The Fed is unlikely to lower rates, or increase their balance sheet, prior to a. As shown in the following chart, global economic trade has collapsed to. the LAST thing to turn in a cycle as employees are slow to hire and slow to fire. Times the Fed Ended Its Rate Hike Cycle, a Recession and Bear Market.

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Fed’s balance-sheet unwind will be moment of truth for financial markets. This shortsighted behavior is especially acute in the stock market. equity traders look daily for clues to the fate.

The Fed is confident in the economy now, but by next year it may have to slow interest rate hikes and it may have to stop paring back its balance sheet, according to BlackRock’s chief investment.

The Fed said it would run off both Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. New York Fed President William Dudley, who is also vice chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee, said he is aware that a change in policy on the balance sheet will ripple through credit and foreign exchange markets.